Key issues to watch at Asean summits

As Asean leaders converge in Vientiane next week for their summits, which will be held from Oct 6-11, the international community faces uncertainties about what will happen next month.
The Nov 5 US presidential election is akin to a global election, as it will have consequential outcomes for the rest of the world. Against this background, Asean leaders will meet among themselves and with their dialogue partners immediately after to deliberate key issues affecting the community of 675 million citizens.
On the economic front, Asean is more robust and confident. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, with a combined GDP of US$3.8 trillion (122 trillion baht), it is projected to rank fourth by 2030. Asean’s economy is a force to be reckoned with. Furthermore, its economic growth, at 4.6%, is expected to surpass the global average of 3.2%.
As Laos will hand the baton to the next chair, Malaysia, on Oct 11, there are several issues to observe to judge whether Vientiane has effectively delivered results in its soon-to-end one-year tenure.
Despite the multitude of pressing domestic issues, the chair must continue to work to achieve consensus among the 10 member countries and dialogue partners.
Some of these issues to watch for are the following.
First, the world is closely watching what will transpire at the 19th East Asia Summit (EAS) to be held in tandem with this Asean meeting in Vientiane.
This year’s issue will be the worsening geopolitical landscape in Europe and the Middle East. Last year, the Indonesian chair failed to reach a consensus for a joint EAS statement because of disputed wording on the Ukraine-Russia war. Jakarta opted for the chairman’s statement, which is its pejorative, while requesting other EAS members not to issue statements.
Since the war started in February 2022, the situation in Ukraine has not improved, and the Middle East has also worsened. Israel has been trying to eliminate Hamas for the past year without much achievement. Now, Israel has expanded the war to Lebanon, where arch-rival Hezbollah is located. As it turns out, the talk of a ceasefire so far has been just been kicking the can down the road at the expense of civilian casualties.
It must be said that the current Middle East crisis will impact Asean solidarity and its citizens like never before. More specifically, workers from Asean countries, including Thais, have been killed and held hostage as part of the Gaza-Israel conflict. Collectively, Asean has had to appeal for the safety of its citizens in the war zone.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine-Russia war, which has previously caused disagreements among EAS members, will remain a bone of contention at this EAS.
It remains to be seen whether Laos can enable EAS members to reach a consensus on a joint EAS statement. The joint statement is important as it demonstrates that the EAS remains a premium strategic forum for exchanging views on serious global issues in a neutral venue.
The Myanmar crisis will also take centre stage, focusing on the progress and implementation of humanitarian assistance as per one point of the Asean Five-Point Consensus. Regarding progress, the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management (AHA Centre) has been coordinating aid through the World Food Programme in affected areas inside Myanmar. Thailand recently contributed 9 million baht to the AHA Center for this purpose.
In the foreseeable future, there will be two special meetings.
One on the Myanmar crisis, will be a meeting of special envoys hosted by Indonesia. It must be noted, the Paetongtarn government has yet to appoint a special Thai envoy on Myanmar.
The second is the Asean Troika Plus meeting, scheduled for mid-December in Bangkok. For this meeting, Asean will seek to create common ground for all stakeholders in the Myanmar crisis to find a Myanmar-led solution. Asean members do not want major powers to use the Myanmar quagmire as a proxy war.
Furthermore, the world’s largest free trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), is expanding — this regional economic bloc was built in 2012 upon the existing Asean+1 FTA. Now, three more economies — Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, and Chile — have applied to become RCEP members.
Some members have proposed a “pre-screening” step before the accession process. Asean is playing a key role in finalising the accession procedures — closer consultations and collaboration among major RCEP economies such as Japan and China are needed. The RCEP comprises the Asean-10, China, Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. India pulled out due to domestic pressure over local farm policies.
Finally, Asean is currently working on an Asean Community Vision 2045. Over the past year and a half, the Asean High-Level Task Force has crafted this vision. In the next two decades, they want to see Asean agile and relevant in a fast-changing world.
For that, Asean prioritises three key areas: digital transformation, sustainable development, and connectivity. By next year, under Malaysia’s chairmanship, the first region-wide digital economy in the world, the Asean Digital Economic Framework Agreement, will be completed. This will further strengthen the bloc’s efforts to promote digital transformation and connectivity.
On sustainability, the bloc has launched the Asean Strategy for Carbon Neutrality to attract more investment and align with international standards for the region’s green future. In terms of connectivity, Asean is also developing the Asean Connectivity Strategic Plan, a key document within the Asean Community Vision 2045.
Finally, at the summit, there will be the chair’s 14 economic deliverables (seven will be completed by the end of the year) including enhancing supply chain connectivity, addressing financial gaps for micro, small, and medium enterprises, and upgrading the Asean-China Free Trade Agreement 3.0. These represent the legacy of the Lao chair in 2024.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.